Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
